Retrospective, experimental entry-year estimates — not current conditional forecasts. Observed three-year outcomes are available only for complete windows (2020–2022). Probability-weighted capital is an exposure measure, not realized spending.
Select multiple values in each dropdown. Values within a filter are combined with OR; different filters are combined with AND. All values selected means no restriction. Enter a capital threshold in CAD millions (100 = $100M); only costs strictly above it are included. Leave blank for no cost restriction. Missing costs are excluded when a threshold is active.
Construction probability by entry cohort
Unweighted model mean vs. observed construction rate for complete windows
Model estimateObserved · complete windows only
Probability-weighted capital by sector
CAD billions · known-cost projects only
Model support
Project distribution by province / territory
Standardized province labels from the dataset · top 10 by count
Observed three-year outcomes
Incomplete windows are excluded from observed outcome rates, not treated as zero outcomes. “MPI exit” retains the source label; it is not classified here as cancellation.
Project explorer
Click a project name to view its full assessment. Use Compare checkboxes to compare 2–3 projects. Default order: highest construction probability. Click numeric column headings to sort; showing up to 100 matching records.
Compare
Project / proponent
Cohort
Province
Sector
3Y probability ↕
Capital (CAD M) ↕
Weighted (CAD M) ↕
Model support
Project comparison
These are retrospective entry-year assessments using origin information, not updated probabilities from today.
Project details
These are retrospective entry-year assessments using origin information, not updated probabilities from today.